Saturday, September 27, 2014

SCENARIO WATCH | How Gilas Pilipinas can advance to Asian Games semifinals?

With one playing date remaining in the quarterfinal round of the 2014 Asian Games basketball tournament, the Philippine national men’s basketball team still has a chance to advance to the knockout semifinals.

Gilas Pilipinas is set to take on Kazakhstan at 2:15 p.m. while host South Korea takes on Qatar in the 4:45 p.m. contest.
Korea, with two wins, already has the inside track on one of the two semifinal berths in Group H although not even they’re assured of a spot just yet. See what the possible scenarios are for the Filipinos on the final day of quarterfinal action.

SCENARIO 1: Gilas Pilipinas wins by 11* or more points; South Korea beats Qatar.

Result: Philippines advances

This is really the only scenario where the Philippines can advance into the semifinals. They will need a three-way tie to occur between the bottom three teams and find a way to sneak in due to a better quotient.

With Qatar holding a +1 or 1.0075 quotient in games against Gilas and Kazakhstan, the Filipinos will need to win by at least 11 points to make up for their nine-point loss last Friday.

It’s not impossible as Kazakhstan had earlier lost to India, a team the Philippines defeated in the premilinary round, by 19 points.

(*Note: Under the usual FIBA rules, the quotient is determined by points scored divided by points allowed. A 10-point win would give Gilas a tie with Qatar at +1 but could still give the Philippines a better quotient depending on how high the score turns out. Winning by 11 makes it far less complicated.)

SCENARIO 1A: Gilas Pilipinas wins by less than 11* points; South Korea beats Qatar
Result: Philippines eliminated

Even if Gilas defeats Kazakhstan, falling short of the magic number of 11 could see them eliminated in the final eight.

Winning by nine or 10 points will see them finish behind Qatar in the group while winning by eight or less means they close Group H in dead last. Not that it will matter, they will be knocked out either way.

Depending on how large the margin is, Qatar and Kazakhstan both have chances to move on in this scenario.

SCENARIO 2: Gilas Pilipinas wins; Qatar beats South Korea

Result: Philippines eliminated

A Philippine win over Kazakhstan, no matter what margin, is moot if South Korea can’t get past Qatar in the second game.

A second quarterfinal victory by Qatar would automatically put them out of reach for the Filipinos.

SCENARIO 3: Gilas Pilipinas loses to Kazakhstan

Result: Philippines eliminated

This could actually be several different scenarios, with a three-way tie at 2-1 still possible, giving any of the three teams a shot at advancing depending on what the winning margins are on the final playing day.

That doesn’t include Gilas Pilipinas, though, as a loss against Kazakhstan would mean outright elimination from the tournament.


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